Well ladies and gents it’s that time of year: Oscar Weekend. In the past few years I’ve made sure never to miss the telecast, after all I’m a huge movie geek. However this year I could not be more indifferent. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that I have no TV in my room and thus am somewhat disconnected already, perhaps it’s because this year was such a stinker, perhaps it’s because the one movie I felt was the best picture of the year isn’t even nominated in that category. Be that as it may, it does have some perks, not least of which being that my favourite actress is nominated (how I love you Ellen Page… and have for years not like these newb fans who’ve never even heard of Hard Candy or ReGenesis).
Be that as it may, the Oscars really haven’t been the same since Billy Crystal left, and with the whole writer strike issues this year we are certainly in for an interesting show (though to be honest, I would have actually liked to of seen an Oscars sans-writers/stars. Perhaps then we could acknowledge the people that really matter in the film industry).
Anyways, since I’ve done it just about every year I’ll do my Oscar Predictions. As per usual it will be broken down into what will win and what should win (in my opinion of course). Tonight I’ll do my first few, and finish up the rest tomorrow.
BEST ACTOR
George Clooney in “Michael Clayton”Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood”Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah”Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises”
WHO WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis
WHO SHOULD WIN: Anyone.
This is probably the toughest of all of the cateogies since every one of these guy’s is a freakin’ God. While I personally am not yet familiar with DD-L’s performance (still waiting on my copy of “There WIll Be Blood”) I have seen everyone else (okay not Tommy Lee Jones in that film) and everyone of them turned in incredible performances! If I had my druthers I’d pick Clooney since I’m madly in love with him, but anyone of them is deserving.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men”
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War”
Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild”Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton”
WHO WILL WIN: Javier Bardem or Casey Affleck
WHO SHOULD WIN: Casey Affleck
Once again, sort of talking out of my ass here. I have not seen “…Jesse James…”, nor “Into the Wild”, however I have heard nothing but amazing things about Affleck’s performance, and I truly hope he wins. Having said that Bardem’s performance is so God-damned terrifying that he very well could take it.
BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
Julie Christie in “Away from Her”
Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose”
Laura Linney in “The Savages”
Ellen Page in “Juno”
WHO WILL WIN: Ellen Page
WHO SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett
Okay, don’t get me wrong – I love Ellen Page… deeply… with all my heart… and “Juno” is a great film, but this is not the role she should win for. If she does, I fear she will be forever type cast in a role that, while good, is not her best – nor does it show her true potential. Were she to win for “Hard Candy”, “An American Crime”, or “Tracey Fragments” I’d be all for it – but “Juno” is not what she should be remembered for. Yes, she’s great (nay, fantastic), but it’s not that tough of a role to play. Now that I’ve got that rant out of the way (though I’ll repeat it frequently for the next few months) I want to see Blanchett win so she can be one of (if not the) first actress to win the same award, for the same role, in two separate films. And if anyone can do it, it’s her! PLEASE DON’T HATE ME ELLEN!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There”
Ruby Dee in “American Gangster”
Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement”
Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone”Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton”
WHO WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett
WHO SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett
Since she’s not going to win best actress, she has a really good chance at best supporting, after all she is a woman playing a man, and not just any man, but Bobeffin Dylan (well, a part of Dylan at least). Acutally this is a tough call as I’ve seen only two of these films (“Michael Clayton” and “American Gangster”) and I loved both of those actresses in their roles (though Swinton wasn’t in it all that much, and her best moment was the last 2 minutes of the film), Cate Blanchett is such a powerhouse I can’t foresee her not winning. Of course with “Atonement” getting all the buzz it’s getting (despite Ikea Knightly) who knows…
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”: Roger Deakins
“Atonement”: Seamus McGarvey
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”: Janusz Kaminski
“No Country for Old Men”: Roger Deakins
“There Will Be Blood”: Robert Elswit
WHO WILL WIN: Roger Deakins
WHO SHOULD WIN: Roger Deakins
Okay, for those of you who don’t understand this pick, you obviously do not understand anything about Cinematography. I may not know much but what I do know (other than knowing I can’t shoot worth crap, that’s for sure — unless we’re doing a 24 knock-off) is that Roger Deakins is a God! It doesn’t matter what he wins for, so long as he wins. Having said that, last year “Children of Men” was scammed so it could go to something else… but I doubt it.
BEST ART-DIRECTION
“American Gangster” – Art Direction: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
“Atonement” – Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
“The Golden Compass” – Art Direction: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” – Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
“There Will Be Blood” – Art Direction: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
WHAT WILL WIN: Judging by last year… Golden Compass
WHAT SHOULD WIN: Sweeney Todd – simply because no one creates a world like Tim Burton and his crew.
It’s nice to see “American Gangster” get nominated for something, but honestly I don’t think it was anything that great. It’s a tough category to call because they all are so very different, but because I am a big fan of Burton I hope “Sweeney Todd” wins. But like I said, judging by last year it is feasible that Golden Compass could take it.
BEST FILM EDITING
“The Bourne Ultimatum”: Christopher Rouse
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”: Juliette Welfling
“Into the Wild”: Jay Cassidy
“No Country for Old Men”: Roderick Jaynes
“There Will Be Blood”: Dylan Tichenor
WHO WILL WIN: Roderick Jaynes
WHO SHOULD WIN: Roderick Jaynes or Christopher Rouse
Honestly it’s a tough call… mostly due to the fact that I’ve only seen two of these. “Bourne Ultimatum” is the only one of the two that I’ve seen (the other being “No Country”) that I thought did anything stand-outish (that boy can cut!) but I’d like to see Jaynes to win simply because he’s not a real person – but rather a fake name for the Coen Bros. and I’d love to see how they deal with it!
BEST MAKEUP
“La Vie en Rose”: Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
“Norbit”: Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”: Ve Neill and Martin Samuel
WHAT WILL WIN: Pirates
WHAT SHOULD WIN: I don’t give a shit, so long as Norbit doesn’t (though it at least has real makeup, none of this CGI crap!)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Golden Compass”: Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”: John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier
“Transformers”: Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier
WHAT WILL WIN: Who Knows…
WHAT SHOULD WIN: Who Cares…
Okay, that may seem rude… but when you get right down to it, it’s really too tough to call. “Golden Compass” is all fantasy like, “Pirates” has tentacle face, and “Transformers” is Transformers. Nothing is particularly stand-outish, nothing really pushes the boundaries, so I really don’t care which wins.
Well that’s it for tonight, I will post the rest of them tomorrow including the big guns: best director and best picture, and I’ll tell you right now Juno fans, you’re not going to be very happy with me. Until then get some rest because as we know tomorrow ain’t going to be an early night. And Amanda, don’t forget, I want some Shwag!
Is it just me or does “In Association with Hasbro” look odd next to DreamWorks and Paramount?