Alright ladies and gentlemen, here we go with my annual Oscar picks. For my newer readers, let me explain what I do.
List of Nominees, followed by who will win (based on what I think will be picked by the Academy) and what should win (based on what I think is the most deserving). Sometimes they match up. Sometimes my “should win” predictions end up being the winners. Finally this is followed by a brief (though not so brief this year) discussion of why I’ve made said selections.
This year was a tough one to call. This is in part due to the fact that when you get right down to it, I think there were really only like 11 films nominated for anything, and in many cases every single film in the category was so deserving that picking just one was damn near impossible.
However this year also marks my best year for seeing the nominees (not that it was that hard to catch them all considering there were essentially 5 movies nominated for nearly everything). There were very few I didn’t see, so for the most I’m not talking out of my ass.
Overall Predictions: Slumdog Millionaire should be the big winner, but chances are The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will be the big winner. More on this in a bit. But, lets get on with it.
Best Actor
Richard Jenkins for “The Visitor”
Frank Langella for “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn for “Milk”
Brad Pitt for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Mickey Rourke for “The Wrestler”
Who Will Win: Mickey Rourke
Who Should Win: Sean Penn
This, like many of the selections this year, was incredibly hard to call. There are simply so many deserving of the awards this year that picking just one is damn near impossible. One call that was easy to make was that Brad Pitt will not win (unless of course Benjamin Button does a full sweep and takes everything… which it shouldn’t). Not only should he be disqualified on account of the fact that for, probably 50% of the movie it’s a digital recreated version of his face stuck onto another actors body (techincally amazing yes, but how the academy would let that slip by is beyond me), he was nothing special. And I’m a Brad Pitt fan! I just don’t think that this should be the film he wins for.
As for Rourke, his performance was incredible. There’s no question about that. However, Sean Penn was playing a real life character and he nailed it. He was 100% believable the entire time. And I don’t even like Sean Penn. True, Frank Langella had that going for him aswell (playing a non-fictional character), and he was spectacular, but while he may have gotten Nixon’s manerisms down, I still can’t tell if he was avoiding doing an “impression” (vocally) for artistic reasons or simply because he couldn’t do the voice. And in all honesty, I thought Michael Sheen was better as David Frost anyways.
But who the hell knows. It might even go to that guy I’ve never heard of in that film I didn’t know existed! Who knows.
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway for “Rachel Getting Married”
Angelina Jolie for “Changeling”
Melissa Leo for “Frozen River”
Meryl Streep for “Doubt”
Kate Winslet for “The Reader”
Who Will Win: Kate Winslet
Who Should Win: Angelina Jolie
Again, a tough one. You’ve got, arguably, one of the finest actresses of our time (though I’ve never been all that wild about her) playing a bitchy Nun so naturally she seems like the obvious choice. But having seen Doubt, she’d be the first person I’d say shouldn’t win. Then you have the English “thesp” playing the German Nazi Woman with a deep dark secret. How could she not win!?
However my money is on Angelina Jolie. Personally, I’ve never been wild about her (though she was good in Girl Interupted), but her performance in Changeling was outstanding. Not the least bit preachy (“Ooo, give me the Oscar! My accent is so good! Look at my range!”) she is 100% believable, even if no one on screen will believe her. Not to mention (and this is the most important one) she overcame her own celebrity and became her character 100%, and when you’re a star like her that is a damn near impossible thing to do. Not once did I go “Oh wow, that’s Angelina Jolie. She’s married to Brad Pitt. She has lots of children”. She became the character. She was Christine Collins, not Angelina Jolie as Christine Collins. She even stopped looking like Angelina Jolie. If I hadn’t known that was her, I probably would have spent most of the movie thinking, “Where have I seen her before”. Doubt has me thinking “Oh there’s Meryl, acting up a storm”. The Reader had me thinking “Oh there’s Katie. Acting up a storm. My, I haven’t seen this much of her breasts since I was 9. And my lord, her armpits are hairy”.
But then again, I was totally off last year and it went to the total underdog. Perhaps Anne Hathaway will win shocking us all. Or maybe it’ll be that girl I’ve never heard of in that movie I didn’t know existed.
Wouldn’t it be weird if both those films I didn’t know existed got best Actor/Actress…
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin for “Milk”
Robert Downey, Jr. for “Tropic Thunder”
Philip Seymour Hoffman for “Doubt”
Heath Ledger for “The Dark Knight”
Michael Shannon for “Revolutionary Road”
Who Will Win: Heath Ledger
Who Should Win: Heath Ledger
Okay. Yes, Josh Brolin was stageringly good in Milk. Yes, Philip Seymour Hoffman was fantastic in Doubt (but he’s Philip Seymour Hoffman, he’s good in everything). Yes, Robert D. played a white man playing a black man. Yes, Michael Shannon played a crazy guy. But Heath Ledger was The Joker. And not only that, he was better than the previous Joker, who was played by Jack fucking Nicholson. Some snotty nosed people have said “Oh if he wins, it’s only because he died” and true, that plays a big part of this (after all, he’s the only one of the bunch who can never win ever again… well almost). But I remember sitting in the theatre watching The Dark Knight and being genuinely terrified of his character, and that rarely happens to me. I mean Robin squirms at lots of stuff, but I have a pretty tough stomach, and certainly rarely get creeped out by characters alone. But he was phenomenal (I’m running out of synonyms for great, can you tell?). Of course, we may never know if our opinions are clouded by his death, because there is no way to watch that film and not have his death loom over that part. But let’s put it this way:
Every single actor nominated is deserving.
Every single actor nominated is fantastic.
Every single actor did something unique for them.
But Ledger is the only actor who cannot win again. Let’s do him this honour. Let’s honour the fact that he was such a talented young man, taken from us all too soon. Let’s honour his memory with this award. Give it to the other guys in the future (besides, Hoffman already has a statue at home).
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams for “Doubt”
Penélope Cruz for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Viola Davis for “Doubt”
Taraji P. Henson for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Marisa Tomei for “The Wrestler”
Who Will Win: ?
Who Should Win: ?
Sorry guys. But try as I might this is the hardest one to call yet. Amy Adams we can write off right now (of course now that I said that she’ll win). She was nothing to write home about. Viola Davis was really good for the 14 minutes she was on screen, though I’m not sure that she’s good enough to win an award. Taraji P. Henson was arguably the best part of Benjamin Button, and I would be very happy if she won. Marisa Tomei has won in the past, and she was really great in The Wrestler (plus she got nekkid, so you gotta give her props for that), and I might argue she stands the best chance. However, the one that keeps sticking out in my mind is Penélope Cruz. And not just because she was in a Woody Allen film. It’s mostly because she was convincingly crazy. Anyone can do crazy, but it takes a lot to come off as convincingly crazy, and she nailed it. Plus she made out with ScarJo.
Ironically this is one of the few categories in which I have seen every single film. That’s part of what makes it so God-damned tough to choose.
Best Original Screenplay
“WALL-E” – Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter
“Happy-Go-Lucky” – Mike Leigh
“Frozen River” – Courtney Hunt
“In Bruges” – Martin McDonagh
“Milk” – Dustin Lance Black
Who Will Win: Milk
Who Should Win: Milk
Granted, I have not seen Happy-Go-Lucky or Frozen River, but I think this is a hands down win for Milk (thus jinxing it…). For those who take issue with the film (yes, I’m talking to you Mark Kermode), you would be hard pressed to say that the writing is not impeccable. Not only were they able to re-tell a true story accurately on film, they rarely had to turn to dramatic license. Just about everything I saw in that film was reiterated in The Times of Harvey Milk. It’s just an absolutely fantastic, and important story.
True, In Bruges was really funny, and Wall-E was remarkably charming (I would even argue that it should be up for Best Picture), but Wall-E also didn’t have a whole heck of a lot of dialogue, which is very key (in my opinion) when it comes to a screenplay.
Since Milk won’t be taking home best picture (you’ll hear why in a bit), this is where they’ll honour it.
Best Adapted Screenplay
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” – Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
“Frost/Nixon” – Peter Morgan
“The Reader” – David Hare
“Slumdog Millionaire” – Simon Beaufoy
“Doubt” – John Patrick Shanley
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Again, this one was tough to call, but I think it’s safe to say that Slumdog will take home the statue for this (unless of course its a Button sweep). Though again I must reiterate that it is a very tough call. Personally, of all the films listed, I think Frost/Nixon is the best of the bunch. That said, I haven’t seen the play so I don’t know how much “adapting” was done. If it’s anything like Doubt it may be damn near verbatim (I haven’t seen Doubt but have been listening to an audio recording and it appears as though they took the script of the play and just changed the stage directions of film directions). The Reader does have all the things the academy loves, but if they’re going to go for the “Oscar Grab” type of a movie they’d probably go for Button. Because as slow as Button is, it at least feels deliberately so. The Reader is just plain slow.
Best Animated Feature
“Bolt” – Chris Williams and Byron Howard
“Kung Fu Panda” – Mark Osborne and John Stevenson
“WALL-E” – Andrew Stanton
Who Will Win: Wall-E
Who Should Win: Wall-E
It’s fucking Wall-E. E-nough said. I don’t care that Bolt was in 3D. It’s Wall-E.
Best Foreign Language Film
“Revanche” (Austria) in German – Götz Spielmann
“The Class” (France) in French – Laurent Cantet
“The Baader Meinhof Complex” (Germany) in German – Uli Edel
“Departures” (Japan) in Japanese – Yojiro Takita
“Waltz with Bashir” (Israel) in Hebrew – Ari Folman
Who Will Win: Waltz with Bashir
Who Should Win: Waltz with Bashir
True, it’s the only one I’ve seen – but the 20 minutes I watched were remarkable. I mean, I could give a crap about the subject matter (me and war films don’t get along) but it was the coolest animation I’ve seen in a while.
Plus I haven’t seen any of the others.
Best Animated Short
“La Maison En Petits Cubes” – Kunio Kato
“Lavatory – Lovestory” – Konstantin Bronzit
“Oktapodi” – Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand
“Presto” – Doug Sweetland
“This Way Up” – Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes
Who Will Win: ?
Who Should Win: ?
Don’t know, don’t care. If there’s one from Canada, I hope it wins.
Best Art Direction
“Changeling” – James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” – Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo
“The Dark Knight” – Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando
“The Duchess” – Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway
“Revolutionary Road” – Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt
Who Will Win: The Duchess
Who Should Win: The Duchess
While a big part of me wants Dark Knight to take home the award in all its possible categories (since it was so badly snubbed), a big part of me feels its the most deserving since it’s the only one listed that isn’t a period piece, resulting in some real creativity.
That said The Duchess is a costume drama set in Jolly old England in the 18th century. It’s pretty much a shoe in.
That said Changeling may stand a chance because it’s art direction was phenomenal (and was shot on the backlots, all retro style).
Unless of course Button sweeps them all…
Best Cinematography
“Changeling” – Tom Stern
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” – Claudio Miranda
“The Dark Knight” – Wally Pfister
“The Reader” – Chris Menges, Roger Deakins
“Slumdog Millionaire” – Anthony Dod Mantle
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: The Dark Knight
Again, this is partially due to the fact that I want Dark Knight to take whatever it can. That said the Slumdog cinematography is spectacular. But, Dark Knight also had bits shot in IMAX, which is no easy feat. For that reason alone it should take it.
But seriously, The Reader? Further proof that if you make a movie about nazis and the holocaust you’ll get nominated for just about anything.
Best Costume Design
“Australia” – Catherine Martin
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” – Jacqueline West
“The Duchess” – Michael O’Connor
“Milk” – Danny Glicker
“Revolutionary Road” – Albert Wolsky
Who Will Win: The Duchess
Who Should Win: Australia
Alright, if Duchess doesn’t win art direction it certainly will take home costumes. Again, 18th century costume drama. That said, I watched a behind the scenes featurette on Australia and it’s costume design and let me tell you: this film should be taking home the Oscar. These guys went way out of their way on this one (what else would you expect from Baz?). Hopefully the academy will recognize that and give it to Oz.
Again it goes without saying all this could be overruled in favour of a Button sweep.
And also can I just say, what’s with Milk nomination here? Is this meant as a consolation prize? I mean the film is brilliant, and the costumes fit the period, but they are anything but special (considering it looks like they just raided the near by American Apparels and Urban Outfitters).
Best Documentary Feature
Nerakhoon (The Betrayal)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water
Who Will Win: Man on Wire
Who Should Win: Man on Wire
True, this is the only one I’ve seen, but it was wonderful. Actually had me on the edge of my seat. Yes, a documentary that was that thrilling.
Best Documentary Short
“The Conscience of Nhem En” – Steven Okazaki
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness – From the Balcony of Room 306
Who Will Win: ?
Who Should Win: ?
Again, don’t know, don’t care.
Best Film Editing
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” – Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall
“The Dark Knight” – Lee Smith
“Frost/Nixon” – Mike Hill, Daniel P. Hanley
“Milk” – Elliot Graham
“Slumdog Millionaire” – Chris Dickens
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
This is a fairly tough call. It seems only natural to pick Slumdog, but Milk did have some fantastic cutting, as did Frost/Nixon. Dark Knight wasn’t too bad but I wouldn’t say it stood out by any means.
As for Button, I think this one of the few nominations it doesn’t stand a chance. Everyone thinks the movie is too long, and part of an editor’s job is to not only make a long/slow movie feel shorter/faster, but to tell a director “YOUR MOVIE IS TOO GODDAMNED LONG!”. Not only that, much like Dark Knight I don’t remember it being anything spectacular. Certainly nothing like Fight Club.
Best Live Action Short
“On the Line (Auf der Strecke)”
“Manon On the Asphalt”
“New Boy” (Ireland)
“The Pig” (Grisen)
“Toyland” (Spielzeugland)
Who Will Win: ?
Who Should Win: ?
You know the drill…
Best Makeup
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” – Greg Cannom
“The Dark Knight” – John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O’Sullivan
“Hellboy II: The Golden Army” – Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz
Who Will Win: Benjamin Button
Who Should Win: Hellboy
This is the hardest to predict, simply because you have to wonder what they’re taking into consideration. Yes, Button had makeup for 90% of the movie, but most of that makeup was digital. Dark Knight was an even split, with Ledger’s makeup being prothetic and Eckhart’s being digital (though incredibly convincing).
But that said, Hellboy actually had real makeup – I mean the Hellboy makeup is real, and that is absolutely incredible. So you have to ask what the academy respects more. Cool, convincing digital makeup, or the real deal?
Honestly, I think this will be the last year we have to decide. As more and more films move to digital makeup the old stuff will die out. If they were smart they’d split the categories (best digital makeup, best makeup). But in my honest opinion, digital makeup falls under the category of visual effects. For that reason Button should be ruled out (yes, “Old” Cate Blanchet was real, but big whoop). Dark Knight is commendable, especially for the use of brand new prosthetics which make acting much easier for the actors, but come on. Hellboy!
Best Original Score
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” – Alexandre Desplat
“Defiance” – James Newton Howard
“Milk” – Danny Elfman
“Slumdog Millionaire” – A. R. Rahman
“WALL-E” – Thomas Newman
Who Will Win: Benjamin Button
Who Should Win: Benjamin Button
Okay. This one is easy for me. Button for the win. The score is beautiful. Even Jamie Cullum thinks so! Granted, I do enjoy the Slumdog soundtrack, but if it wins it will only be because everyone thinks “Ooo, listen to that! Indian music. This is new!”. Milk apparently had a score? I thought most of it was just needle drops of opera music. As for Wall-E… I was too distracted by the visuals/sound design to notice a score.
This is the one of the few categories I think Button truly deserves.
Best Original Song
“Down to Earth” from WALL-E – Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman (music), Peter Gabriel (lyrics)
“Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire – A. R. Rahman (music), Gulzar (lyrics)
“O Saya” from Slumdog Millionaire – A. R. Rahman and M.I.A.
Who Will Win: ?
Who Should Win: “O Saya”
This is never an easy one to call (other than last year). “O Saya” is definitely the best song from a movie soundtrack that I’ve heard in a long time, but there may be that desire to give it to Wall-E, because it’s Wall-E.
Honestly I have no idea. Though I have to say this is probably the fewest nominees ever. True, most of the songs last year were from one film, but only 3 songs?
Best Sound Editing
“The Dark Knight” – Richard King
“Iron Man” – Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes
“Slumdog Millionaire” – Tom Sayers
“WALL-E” – Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
“Wanted” – Wylie Stateman
Who Will Win: Wall-E
Who Should Win: Slumdog
Granted, if Wall-E takes it I’ll be happy. I do get confused between editing and mixing. But Slumdog had really cool uses of sound and for that reason I would say that it should take editing. However if editing actually means design then give it to Wall-E.
Best Sound Mixing
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” – David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Mark Weingarten
“The Dark Knight” – Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo, Ed Novick
“Slumdog Millionaire” – Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty
“WALL-E” – Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, Ben Burtt
“Wanted” – Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño, Petr Forejt
Who Will Win: Wall-E
Who Should Win: Wall-E
I presume mixing means design, in which case Wall-E is the only answer. Not only was everything created from scratch, but they did such an amazing job. Again, I don’t know which category is which, and Wall-E probably should take both.
Best Visual Effects
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” – Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron
“The Dark Knight” – Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber, Paul Franklin
“Iron Man” – John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick, Shane Mahan
Who Will Win: Benjamin Button
Who Should Win: Benjamin Button
The only other category where Button deserves it. Hands down it is the technically superior film of all the nominations this year. It’s the Titanic of the decade. Yes the film was long. Yes the performances were “Give me an Oscar”ish. Yes, it felt slow. But come on: the special effects were absolutely mind boggling. Perhaps so much so you spent half the movie thinking “how the hell did they do that”. While I would argue their digital makeup is not as good as Dark Knight (Button’s looked too soft to me) but the fact that 90% of the movie has digital effects is pretty mind blowing. Not to mention after watching the behind the scenes features online, there was a lot of stuff that I had no idea was even done digitally.
This is a groundbreaking film. It is a landmark in digital effects. We’re getting to that point where its tough to tell what’s real and what’s fake. Scary for die-hard old-school folk like me, but also it does set the bar for films to follow into the next decade, and it sets it pretty fucking high.
Best Director
Danny Boyle for “Slumdog Millionaire”
Stephen Daldry for “The Reader”
David Fincher for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Ron Howard for “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant for “Milk”
Who Will Win: Danny Boyle/David Fincher
Who Should Win: David Fincher
It could be argued that, much like in the year of Crash and Brokeback Mountain, the two heavy-weight films will be split and one will get Best Picture, the other Best Director. It’s a total toss-up. Personally my money is on Fincher, not just because he’s American, but because the man is an absolutely incredible director (not to say Boyle isn’t), and while Benjamin Button does have it’s flaws, it is a technical marvel and revolutionary (honestly, its up there with Titanic and Lord of the Rings when it comes to its technical achievements) and it takes a real visionary (not to mention someone who is absolutely insane) to pull off a movie like that. Plus, the man directed SE7EN and Fight Club, two of the greatest films of all time, along with Zodiac (though I think I’m the only person who actually likes that movie). He is an auteur in the truest sense.
Don’t get me wrong, Danny Boyle is fantastic, 28 Days Later is right up there with The Exorcist when it comes to horror films, and Trainspotting is, well, Trainspotting. However as good as he is, I think I would have to say Fincher is the bigger visionary, and when you get right down to it, he had the balls to take on Benjamin Button, even if the end result was flawed. It’s Fincher’s time.
Best Picture
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“Milk”
“The Reader”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire/Benjamin Button
Who Should Win: Milk
Much like most of the categories this one is a little hard to call, and as such I had to put down two possible choices for what will win. My reasoning is this – Slumdog is the better of the two films (though personally I wasn’t all that wild about it), but Benjamin Button is the technically superior film and it also has the benefit of being American. That said, Mark Kermode put it best when he refered to Benjamin Button as “Forest Gump with A-Levels”. It is too long, and is a total “awards-grab” of a movie. Yes, it’s technical merits are outstanding, so let it win for those, and Fincher should get the Best Direction award. But it does not deserve to be called best picture.
As for the others: While Frost/Nixon remains one of the most interesting of the selections, it isn’t considerably ground-breaking technically, nor is the story all that new (except to us youngin’s). It is my second favourite of the two, but in all honesty I’m surprised it’s nominated over something like Doubt or even Changeling (one of my picks for best of the year). While The Reader certainly has all the right elements for an Oscar win (thespians, nazis, the holocaust, and a bleak ending) personally I think the academy will see past those (even if they don’t see past Benjamin Button’s Oscar pleas). If it does win it will be for those reasons, and nothing more. I found the film boring and slow, though the performances were quite good (though the best actor in the film, David Kross, wasn’t even nominated). As for Milk, let me put it this way: I saw it three times, over the span of a week, and enjoyed it every single time. The writing is impeccable, the acting outstanding, the direction superb. It tells a very important story that deserves to be better known (something the author intended). I disagree with Mark Kermode’s assesment that it is too televisual, personally I think it’s good that Van Sant didn’t use too much of his art-house style in order to appeal to a wider audience (though some would argue that anyone seeing a movie about a Gay Politician probably would be able to appreciate the art-house aesthetics). The film is honest, and true. Even considering it’s subject matter, it never once comes across as preachy, nor does it ever cry out “Give me an award!”. True, there is a chance that considering the liberal academy, and the fact that it is a “California” movie, there is a chance it may win. Certainly it would be seen as a nice “Fuck You!” to all those who voted yes on Prop (H)8. In my opinion it is truly the best picture of the five, but sadly I think it doesn’t stand a chance against the two heavy weights. But who knows? Milk was always the underdog and perhaps the film will follow in the footsteps of the man that inspired it.
And there you have it. My picks for this evening. The fun starts at 8.00 this eveningm so grab your bag of popcorn, your icey cold Coca-Cola and sit back, relax, and enjoy the show!
But I’m still pissed that they snuck Benjamin Button out just in time for awards consideration. Cheeky bastards.
